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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd